Japanese Diplomacy: The Role of Leadership

 

H. D. P. Envall

2015

Envall_Japanesediplomacy02

About this book

A political leader is most often a nation’s most high-profile foreign policy figure, its chief diplomat. But how do individual leadership styles, personalities, perceptions, or beliefs shape diplomacy? In Japanese Diplomacy, the question of what role leadership plays in diplomacy is applied to Japan, a country where the individual is often viewed as being at the mercy of the group and where prime ministers have been largely thought of as reactive and weak. In challenging earlier, simplified ideas of Japanese political leadership, H. D. P. Envall argues that Japan’s leaders, from early Cold War figures such as Yoshida Shigeru to the charismatic and innovative Koizumi Jun ichirō to the present leadership of Abe Shinzō, have pursued leadership strategies of varying coherence and rationality, often independent of their political environment. He also finds that different Japanese leaders have shaped Japanese diplomacy in some important and underappreciated ways. In certain environments, individual difference has played a significant role in determining Japan’s diplomacy, both in terms of the country’s strategic identity and summit diplomacy. What emerges from Japanese Diplomacy, therefore, is a more nuanced overall picture of Japanese leadership in foreign affairs.

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Envall, HDP (2015) Japanese Diplomacy: The Role of Leadership, Albany, NY: State University of New York Press.

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Introduction

Why Leaders Are Important

Whether presidents or prime ministers, political leaders play a prominent role in a nation’s foreign affairs. When attending summits, conducting negotiations, or signing agreements, they are, in effect, the nation’s most high-profile foreign policy figure, its chief diplomat.1 In the popular consciousness, one common, if circular, view is that diplomatic successes are inevitably achieved by powerful leaders while failures are the product of weak leaders. Conversely, in academia, the role of leaders in international affairs is often overlooked. While political leadership is a concern for those working in the field of foreign policy analysis (FPA),2  scholars from the broader area of international relations (IR) theory have tended to focus on structural or normative explanations for international outcomes.3 In particular, they have paid less attention to questions of how individual leadership styles, personalities, perceptions, or beliefs shape international politics.4 As Daniel Byman and Kenneth Pollack note, the study of leaders has “not been attacked so much as ignored by international relations theorists.”5

Understanding more about how political leadership shapes foreign policy and international affairs is especially helpful for answering some important questions concerning political leadership—and diplomacy—in Japan. Because Japan is viewed as a nation where the individual is at the mercy of the group, prime ministers have been thought of largely as reactive and weak.6  The underlying assumption concerning Japan’s leaders is that they have had little effect on the country’s foreign policy. Constrained by a dominant central bureaucracy, their role has been to avoid scandals and, on occasion, demonstrate a little charisma. On the diplomatic front, they have often been expected just to enjoy the celebrity of leading a major world economy. Comparatively little regard, therefore, has been paid to their role in international affairs.

The arrival of Koizumi Jun’ichirō—Japan’s prime minister from 2001 until  2006—demonstrated  that  Japanese  leaders  can  wield  influence.7 Indeed, his impact on Japan and the region during these years raised doubts about this earlier orthodoxy: was past Japanese leadership as reactive as had been assumed? Previous attempts to locate Japan’s leaders in their environments have arguably mischaracterized Japanese leadership. “Caricatures of national leadership style,” as Richard Samuels has noted, “are,  like  most  stereotypes,  engaging  but  misleading.”8   By  seeing  Japanese leadership as overwhelmingly subject to structural constraints, the orthodoxy of Japanese politics has been to follow the same tendency as IR theory and ignore the role of leaders.9  But what role do leaders play in shaping Japan’s diplomacy?

International Relations and Leadership

In international affairs more widely, the role of leadership is complicated by the fact that leaders must operate across multiple political environments. Domestic politics must also be taken into account, something that has long been a difficult subject for IR theory. Kenneth Waltz, for example, argues that a consistent inability to explain outcomes in IR analytically (i.e., via an examination of the interacting units of IR) suggests that a “systems approach” is required.10 Waltz further suggests that, while the attributes  of  domestic  factors  vary  widely  throughout  the  world,  they are functionally the same. In other words, there is a consistent repetition  of similar international outcomes regardless of the types  of  leadership involved, thereby justifying the need for a systemic focus. John Mearsheimer similarly argues that systemic factors, such as the distribution of power and anarchy, matter the most for understanding and explaining IR.11

By contrast, others view the domestic level as vital to understanding IR. The FPA tradition has long maintained that multiple “decision structures,” including domestic politics and leadership, play an important role in international relations.12 James Rosenau observed the lack of consideration given to domestic politics in international relations in the 1960s, arguing that domestic politics may be a significant factor in IR outcomes and, in some cases, the dominant factor.13   Those examining the role of normative factors in shaping foreign policy have also taken a domestically oriented approach.14  Others have focused on the reverberation that takes place  between  the  levels  (Peter  Gourevitch’s  “second  image  reversed”), whereby the international environment shapes domestic politics which, in turn, reshape the international environment. As Gourevitch explains, “[t]hat international relations and domestic politics interact quite profoundly no longer seems to be a controversial statement.”15

Leaders are, of course, not the only participants in foreign policymaking: they operate in complex organizations, take on certain roles because of their position (rather than their personality), and contend with other political actors from all levels. Their participation in politics also depends upon how “power, preferences, and possible coalitions” are distributed among domestic actors.16 Identifying the role of leaders in IR is, therefore, a problem of individual, society, state, and system.17  As Valerie Hudson and Christopher Vore note, although such an approach can add considerable detail in any analysis of IR, it also means that “elegant and parsimonious theories, portrayed by . . . ‘billiard ball’ models, will prove elusive.”18

One example of such complexity is summit diplomacy. International summits involve three distinct political levels—domestic, international, and summitry. In this multilevel environment, leaders play a prominent role because they must often mediate between the different levels. When they assume the role of chief diplomat they do not relinquish their position as domestic leader, but act as the formal link between the domestic and international. When leaders spearhead foreign policy, they gain special access to information crossing between these different levels and, therefore, extra scope to shape the interplay of events.19  Summits also provide a usefully contained international environment by which to examine leadership, since they limit the number of actors, locations, and issues at stake. Accordingly, after examining leadership at the macro level of political environments and strategic policy, this book uses the Group of Seven (G7) summits to explore at a micro level how leaders’ individual differences shape diplomacy. The G7 summits—later superseded by the Group of Eight (G8) and then the Group of Twenty (G20) summits—are an  important  form  of  diplomacy  in  which  the  role  of  leaders  can  be readily assessed.20

Political Leadership

Foreign policy decision making, notes Hudson, “is dynamic and full of contingencies and creative agency.”21  This makes the task of understanding the role of leadership in IR doubly difficult. It is necessary not only to establish a comprehensive, adaptable, yet parsimonious approach to characterizing leadership, but also to explain its role in a system constantly in flux. In recent decades, the task of characterizing leadership has been taken up by scholars from numerous fields, such as political science, psychology, and management studies. Indeed, it has been argued that researchers often define leadership depending upon their own individual viewpoints and the dimensions of leadership that are most interesting to them.22 James MacGregor Burns, perhaps the most noted leadership scholar of the past 40 years, argues that leadership is when “persons with certain motives and purposes mobilize, in competition or conflict with others, institutional, political, psychological, and other resources so as to arouse, engage, and satisfy the motives of followers.”23

Political leadership therefore is chiefly concerned with political actors, motives and purposes, conflictual environments characterized by institutional as well as ideational frameworks, and followers. These characteristics constitute the basis of what is often described as the leadership environment. The power of other leaders and the expectations of followers, whether formalized through institutions or informally adopted, provide the most obvious boundaries by which leaders are constrained. Rosenau explains this clearly when he describes the fate of leaders who ignore such expectations: “it is when they [leaders] continuously ignore, dismiss, or otherwise fall short of the basic expectations held by their followers that their occupancy of high office becomes tenuous.”24

Leadership Preferences

To begin with, however, there are individual leaders and their “motives and purposes.” In some analyses, particularly those using two-level games approaches,  a  common  assumption  is  that  leaders  operate  as  rational actors and as agents for their domestic constituencies.25  Leaders are utility maximizers—with their utility often assumed, at least in the context of democratic political systems, to be closely linked to the need for re-election. Yet this assumption is subject to doubts at both the domestic and the international levels: leaders can be motivated by multiple other considerations, notably the attainment of personal policy preferences, which may be at odds with the preferences of domestic constituencies or power maximization considerations. The rationality of leaders is bounded by other factors too. Cognitive and emotive considerations—or what Andrew Moravcsik describes as “idiosyncratic ‘first image’ factors” in international relations—also combine with the inherent ambiguities or uncertainties of international diplomacy to limit leadership rationality.26

A first-image factor, according to this understanding, is the “past political history or personal idealism” that influences “individual policy preferences about the issues in question.”27   The term first image encapsulates the political histories, psychologies, and perspectives that leaders bring to their political roles, as opposed to the state-level second image and the international-level third image.28 First-image factors are particularly prevalent in diplomatic bargaining because of the way that leaders perceive, or filter, their circumstances and thereby determine their preferences. These factors in turn help shape how leaders respond to events, thereby shifting diplomatic outcomes away from what might be expected if leaders were merely agents of their political constituencies.29 Even though such factors are marginalized in the study of IR, they constitute a more important focus for research in leadership studies and FPA. Rather than assume that leaders are rational actors or are merely representative of their political constituencies, scholars in these areas consider the range of factors that motivate leaders and the ways in which leaders are often at odds with their environments. Some studies suggest that leaders in diplomacy often act according to their own preferences or ideology rather than those of their constituents.30

An Interactive Approach to Leadership Strategy

Beyond characterizing individual leaders, explaining leadership requires an understanding of the dynamic relationship between leader and environment, or an interactive model of political leadership. An interactive approach views leadership as the interaction of psychology, skills, and situation. It imagines leadership as a time-based process that is “continuous and reciprocal,” an ongoing exchange between different members in a group situation.31  Individual leaders in this process can be understood as “key junctures” in the wiring of politics or, in other words, as “circuit breakers.”32  The interaction between leaders and environments can differ widely, with broad historical trends often operating outside the control of leaders but nevertheless subject to leaders’ occasional capacity to change or modify these trends at key moments.

Unfortunately, the leadership studies field, like FPA, has struggled to clarify where and how leadership acts as a causative factor in politics. The failure to make clear when leadership is a process or an outcome has been critical in this regard. Many leadership scholars have focused on the different styles of political leadership (i.e., a process); yet there has also been a tendency to define political leadership as real and intended change or purposeful causation (i.e., an outcome).33  Both concepts are undeniably necessary: process without outcome is merely descriptive; outcome without process quickly becomes deterministic. However, confusing the two can easily lead to a type of circular reasoning, as is the case in much work on transformational leadership. Many studies create a logic whereby leadership outcomes become both a product of, and input into, their related leadership processes. Clearly, leadership needs to be seen as something that covers two distinct political phenomena: the way leaders behave, as well as what they achieve.34

Leadership and Japanese Diplomacy

The study of leadership in Japan highlights the difficulties facing those attempting  to  characterize  political  leadership.  Japan’s  prime  ministers have the formal power to shape their country’s diplomatic agenda, lay out its major foreign policy principles, and direct policy in key areas. As noted earlier, there is much to suggest that individual leaders can play a significant role in shaping Japan’s foreign affairs and that studies looking into how leadership strategies operate in Japanese diplomacy should be useful for wider understandings of leadership in FPA and IR.35   Glenn Hook et al. list the prime ministers who, through “moral authority,” have been able to push other parts of government into achieving their diplomatic goals.36   The most obvious example of a prime minster leaving a deep and long-lasting impact on Japan’s diplomacy (since the Second World War) is Yoshida Shigeru. Yoshida designed and implemented a pragmatic but far-reaching postwar foreign policy framework, the Yoshida Doctrine, which allowed Japan to focus on its economy but rely on the United States for its security.37

Similar  conclusions  have  been  reached  by  other  studies.  Bert Edström finds that by noting changes of leadership and then identifying concurrent policy shifts, it is possible to see which prime ministers have had an impact on Japan’s overall diplomatic orientation. Although not an assessment of the extent of leaders’ “impact” on the country’s “official foreign policy doctrine” or strategic identity, Edström’s study identifies a number of prime ministerships that coincided with substantial changes in policy thinking. Yet he also finds that there is little “linkage” between the existence, or degree, of change, and the nature (whether strong or weak) of relevant prime ministers.38 How and why leaders such as Yoshida or Koizumi are seen to have had such an influence on Japan’s diplomacy warrants further study.

Although much work on domestic leadership in Japan  exists,  less work has been done on Japanese leadership and foreign affairs prior to the 2000s. Tomohito Shinoda’s work on Koizumi’s diplomacy exemplifies the attention given to the role of leaders in Japan’s foreign affairs in the post-Koizumi period; for the pre-Koizumi era, only Edström focuses primarily on political leadership in foreign policy. No scholar looks specifically and extensively at the issue of leadership and summitry, although Hugo Dobson addresses the subject briefly in his book on Japan at the G7/8 summits.39 Otherwise, as with leadership in the domestic sphere, scholars have often viewed Japanese political leadership at the international level as constrained and reactive. Aurelia George Mulgan, for instance, argues that poor leadership made Japan an “unreliable ally” during the Gulf War in 1991 and incapable of decisive action during the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98.40

At the macro level, a useful way to study the role of leadership in Japanese diplomacy is through the country’s strategic thinking, or strategic identity, since the Second World War. Examining the role of leadership in the evolution of the country’s strategic identity may indeed help explain some important puzzles of this period, particularly the fact that Japan’s foreign and security policies have often not met the expectations of IR scholars with regard to normal nation-state behavior. Japan’s reluctance to adopt strategic policies commensurate to its rising power, both during and since the Cold War, is particularly puzzling for structural IR theories. On the other hand, the country’s intermittent process of security “normalization” is not fully explained by theories that focus on normative domestic factors. A better understanding of leadership’s role in the evolution of Japan’s strategic identity may help clarify these problems. Further, given the implication that domestic factors may reverberate back into the international system, as Gourevitch’s “second image reversed” concept suggests, understanding Japan’s strategic behavior should help provide a better understanding of international relations in both the Asia-Pacific and wider world.

At  the  micro  level,  an  obvious  area  to  study  the  role  of  leaders in Japan’s diplomacy is at international summits such as the G7 of the 1970s and 1980s. First, the G7 summits have been a vital forum for Japanese diplomacy: they have fitted well with the Yoshida Doctrine’s focus on economic development; have been useful for dealing with immediate international economic problems; and have also suited Japan’s preference for multilateralism. Second, a focus on the G7 summits of the 1970s and 1980s allows for a detailed examination of the connections between Japanese political leadership and diplomatic outcomes before the arrival of Koizumi and subsequent reconsideration of Japanese leadership. Finally, the G7 summits are also useful case studies because they provide consistency in the leadership environment across different leadership examples. While Japan faced a range of diplomatic challenges during the late 1970s and early 1980s, the main features of its international circumstances were relatively consistent. The country was an emerging power, about to become a major economy but still unsure of its influence in global politics; it also faced the economic and political turmoil of the oil shocks and subsequent global economic downturn. Japan’s transition from a catch-up country to an advanced nation (senshinkoku) reshaped its thinking about its own development and its role in the world. As Kenneth Pyle argues, Japan had changed into “a pioneer seeking to chart the future course of economic, technological, and social organization.”41

This Book

Aims

John Masciulli and W. Andy Knight observe that leadership is important in foreign policymaking “all of the time” as a “descriptive/explanatory/ predictive variable and cause.”42  This book explores in detail how individual leaders operate in international affairs. First, by further developing a framework of political leadership, the book helps to characterize how leaders operate in foreign affairs and to what extent their leadership matches their domestic environments or the idiosyncratic, individual characteristics noted above. Second, the book identifies where and how leadership plays a causal role in the processes and outcomes of foreign policy decision making. What impact do individual leaders have on their environments? Drawing on these general objectives, the book examines and explains the narrower topic of Japanese political leadership and foreign affairs. To what extent have Japanese prime ministers, especially before the arrival of Koizumi, been able to pursue idiosyncratic leadership styles not necessarily in step with their political environments? To what extent have these leaders shaped the country’s diplomacy as well as international affairs in Japan’s immediate region and the wider world? And what are the implications of reconsidering the leadership of these earlier prime ministers for understanding Japanese leadership in foreign affairs today?

Method

In order to fill such gaps—to better characterize leaders and more clearly identify their roles within their political environments—a clearer linkage between leadership process and outcome is required. Vital to this task is the need to make use of four clearly defined concepts central to political leadership. Adapted from the leadership studies literature discussed above, these are: (1) leadership vision (or intended political change), (2) leadership style (political or leadership behavior), (3) leadership environment(s), and (4) leadership outcomes (or effected political change).

Leadership vision comprises the values and goals of political leaders, their motivations, perceptions, biases and morality, while leadership style covers leaders’ traits, skills, and behaviors, such as political tactics and techniques.43  As such, they cover many of these “first-image” factors. Leadership vision and style, taken together, constitute a type of leadership strategy. This might be defined as an overarching agenda that combines vision and style in the pursuit of leadership outcomes in a given political environment (in this case, Japanese politics and Japan’s G7 environment). The third concept, leadership environment(s), incorporates the multiple environments of international summitry, covering the domestic, summitry, and international levels of analysis. There are a number of intervening variables that come into play during the different summits. Specific economic, political, and security issues, such as oil security, trade protectionism, and missile deployment emerge in various ways. Nonetheless, the basic framework of the summits remains constant.

This leaves the question: what constitutes leadership outcomes? Political outcomes are relatively easy to discern. In Japan’s summitry context, they encompass the particular outcomes of the G7 and surrounding diplomacy relevant to Japan, as well as the policies and approaches Japan adopted at these forums. Yet determining how these outcomes have been the products of individual political leadership is more problematic. In this regard, the concepts of action and actor dispensability are crucial.44 Action dispensability is concerned with questions of how important a certain action is to a particular outcome (regardless of the actor). Would a different outcome have occurred if a different action had taken place? Actor dispensability is concerned with the role played by a leader’s personality, preferences, or strategy in outcomes. If a different leader with different preferences had been substituted, would the political outcomes have been the same?

In examining these questions, the book moves from general theory, to broad Japanese context, and then to specific Japanese cases. The initial focus is on how political leadership is seen to function, while the subsequent aim is to explain the domestic and international environmental contexts in which Japan’s leaders operate. The book then seeks to explain the role of leadership at a macro level of Japanese strategic thinking. In particular, it looks at how leaders have shaped Japan’s strategic identity since the Second World War. Finally, the book tests the role of leaders in narrower environments.

The main method employed is the comparative case study, with a particular  focus  on  the  differences between  leaders  in  similarly  structured contexts (the “method of difference”).45  The data used to construct these case studies is extracted from a range of material, in both English and Japanese. Primary material such as summit statements and declarations, speeches, media interviews, and so on, are widely used. Other documents include memoirs, biographies, and newspaper accounts. A variety of Japanese-language materials, including journalistic accounts of events, as well as subsequent analyses and memoirs by participants, are also referred to widely.

Argument

This book makes the case for a more nuanced picture of past Japanese leadership than is currently accepted, as well as for the important role of leadership in shaping Japanese diplomacy. The first argument is that Japan’s leaders have pursued leadership strategies of varying coherence and rationality, often independent of their political environment. Despite their similar life and political backgrounds, and in the face of broadly similar leadership environments, the leaders in the three case studies—Ōhira Masayoshi, Suzuki Zenkō, and Nakasone Yasuhiro—demonstrated quite distinct leadership visions and styles that reflected their own personal beliefs and preferences. This supports similar findings in the context of Japan’s evolving strategic identity.

The second argument is that different Japanese leaders have shaped Japanese diplomacy in some important, and underappreciated, ways. High actor indispensability to diplomatic outcomes is present in two of the three cases examined, those of Suzuki and Nakasone. Yet the presence of high leadership indispensability cannot inevitably be linked to particular leadership strategies. Rather, leadership indispensability is best explained through the interaction of intervening factors—both individual and environmental—with this interaction at times leading to counter-intuitive but nevertheless important outcomes. This in turn points strongly to the fact that, in certain environments, individual difference can directly shape diplomacy. The results of these narrow case studies match similar observations at the macro level of Japan’s strategic identity. By examining leadership as a factor shaping Japan’s strategic identity and foreign policies, it is possible to see how Japan’s supposedly anomalous foreign policies (in the view of much IR theory) have been shaped by dominant norm entrepreneurs. At times of upheaval in the international order, these entrepreneurs engaged in highly effective forms of “strategic social construction” with regard to Japanese diplomacy, suggesting that their visions and strategies have been as important to change in Japan’s strategic identity as systemic and normative pressures.46

In seeking to determine the role of Japanese political leadership, it is necessary to reach two findings in the case studies examined in this book. First, the case studies should show whether, or to what extent, the Japanese prime ministers pursued strategies reflecting individual factors, such as their own beliefs or ideologies outside the preferences of their political environments. Were they independent of their political environments? Did they shape the outcomes of the summits? Second, the case studies should show how the Japanese prime ministers themselves were able to play a role, if any, in shaping the summitry outcomes. How indispensable were they as individuals both to Japanese diplomacy and to the overall summitry outcomes?

Japan’s prime ministers were, it must be said, unlikely to have enjoyed, or necessarily desired, a free hand in pursuing their own leadership strategies or in shaping Japan’s summit policy. The studies accordingly reveal a number of constraints on Japanese leaders, such as domestic preferences or international issues. This applies both to the general study on Japan’s strategic identity and to the specific studies on summits. Yet the task here is not to demonstrate that the leaders pursued entirely idiosyncratic or irrational leadership strategies or overwhelmingly drove Japanese diplomacy. The task instead is to demonstrate the  significant ways in which the leaders deviated from their domestic environments, displayed leadership that was heavily bounded in its rationality, or were indispensable to particular foreign policy outcomes.

Outline

The book is divided into three sections. In the first section, the theoretical, environmental, and broader historical contexts are developed. Chapter 1 introduces the broad outlines of leadership studies, extends the characterization of political leadership, and examines the multiple environments relevant to diplomatic leadership. These include the domestic, international, and summitry levels. Chapter 2 then extrapolates the general analysis of the first chapter to the specific context of Japanese political and diplomatic leadership. Chapter 3 examines the role of political leadership at the macro level of Japan’s strategic behavior from the Second World War until the present day. The second section contains the book’s micro-level empirical work and consists of three case studies—chapter 4 evaluates Ōhira’s leadership at the Tokyo summit in 1979, chapter 5 looks at Suzuki’s leadership at Ottawa in 1981, and chapter 6 examines the leadership of Nakasone at the Williamsburg summit of 1983. Finally, the book concludes with an overall assessment of the role of leadership in Japanese diplomacy.

Notes

Introduction

  1. See Tomohito Shinoda, Koizumi Diplomacy: Japan’s Kantei Approach to Foreign and Defense Affairs (Seattle, WA: University of Washington Press, 2007), 18.
  2. For good examples from the FPA literature, see Margaret G. Hermann, “Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders,” International Studies Quarterly 24, no. 1 (1980); Raymond Birt, “Personality and Foreign Policy: The Case of Stalin,” Political Psychology 14, no. 4 (1993); Jonathan W. Keller, “Leadership Style, Regime Type, and Foreign Policy Crisis Behavior: A Contingent Monadic Peace?” International Studies Quarterly 49, no. 2 (2005).
  3. Ariel Ilan Roth, Leadership in International Relations: The Balance of Power and the Origins of World War II (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), 4–5. IR scholars do examine the agency-structure problem. See Alexander Wendt, “The Agency-Structure Problem in International Relations Theory,” International Organization 41, no. 3 (1987); Walter Carlsnaes, “The Agency-Structure Problem in Foreign Policy Analysis,” International Studies Quarterly 36, no. 3 (1992); Gil Friedman and Harvey Starr, Agency, Structure, and International Politics: From Ontology to Empirical Inquiry (London: Routledge, 1997).
  4. Keller, “Leadership Style.” On ideas, perceptions or learning, see Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976); Jack S. Levy, “Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minefield,” International Organization 48, no. 2 (1994).
  5. Daniel L. Byman and Kenneth M. Pollack, “Let Us Now Praise Great Men: Bringing the Statesman Back In,” International Security 25, no. 4 (2001): 110.
  6. Kenji Hayao, The Japanese Prime Minister and Public Policy (Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1993); Karel van Wolferen, The Enigma of Japanese Power: People and Politics in a Stateless Nation (London: Macmillan, 1989).
  7. Richard J. Samuels, Machiavelli’s Children: Leaders and their Legacies in Italy and Japan (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2003); Alisa Gaunder, Political Reform in Japan: Leadership Looming Large (London: Routledge, 2007); Yū Uchiyama, Koizumi and Japanese Politics: Reform Strategies and Leadership Style, trans. Carl Freire  (London: Routledge, 2010).
  8. Samuels, Machiavelli’s Children, 352.
  9. H. D. P. Envall, “Exceptions that Make the Rule? Koizumi Jun’ichirō and Political Leadership in Japan,” Japanese Studies 28, no. 2 (2008).
  10. Kenneth N.  Waltz,  Theory  of  International  Politics  (Boston,  MA: McGraw-Hill, 1979), 68.
  11. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: W. W. Norton, 2001), 10.
  12. See Joe D. Hagan, “Does Decision Making Matter? Systemic Assumptions vs. Historical Reality in International Relations Theory,” International Studies Review 3, no. 2 (2001).
  13. James N. Rosenau, “Introduction,” in Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy, ed. James Rosenau (New York: The Free Press, 1967), 4.
  14. For example, see  Peter  J.  Katzenstein,  Cultural  Norms  and  National Security: Police and Military in Postwar Japan (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998).
  15. Peter Gourevitch, “Domestic Politics and International Relations,” in Handbook of International Relations, ed. Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth Simmons (London: Sage, 2002), 309. For the “second image reversed” concept, also see Peter Gourevitch, “The Second Image Reversed: The International Sources of Domestic Politics,” International Organization 32, no. 4 (1978).
  16. See Robert D. Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games,” International Organization 42, no. 3 (1988): 442; Helen V. Milner, Interests, Institutions, and Information: Domestic Politics and International Relations (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997), 16.
  17. Colin Wight, Agents, Structures and International Relations: Politics as Ontology (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006), 178.
  18. Valerie M. Hudson and Christopher S. Vore, “Foreign Policy Analysis Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow,” Mershon International Studies Review 39, no.2 (1995): 211.
  19. Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics,” 432–33.
  20. Ibid., 427–69.
  21. Valerie M. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2007), 166.
  22. Gary Yukl, Leadership in Organizations, 7th ed. (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson, 2010), 20.
  23. James MacGregor Burns, Leadership (New York: Harper & Row, 1978), 18.
  24. James N. Rosenau, “Followership and Discretion: Assessing the Dynamics of Modern Leadership,” Harvard International Review 26, no. 3 (2004): 15.
  25. Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics,” 435–36.
  26. Andrew Moravcsik, “Introduction:  Integrating  International and Domestic Theories  of  International  Bargaining,”  in  Double-Edged  Diplomacy: International  Bargaining  and  Domestic  Politics,  ed.  Peter  B.  Evans,  Harold  K. Jacobson, and Robert D. Putnam (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1993), 30.
  27. Ibid.
  28. On “images” of international relations, see Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the State and War: A Theoretical Analysis (New York: Columbia University Press, 2001).
  29. On strategic culture, see Alastair Iain Johnston, “Thinking About Strategic Culture,” International Security 19, no. 4 (1995). For leadership perceptions, see Joseph  Masciulli and W. Andy Knight, “Conceptions of Global Leadership for Contextually Intelligent, Innovatively Adaptive Political Leaders,” in The Ashgate Research Companion to Political Leadership, ed. Joseph Masciulli, Mikhaila A. Molchanov, and W. Andy Knight (Farnham: Ashgate, 2009), 95–97. For a study on the psychopathological personality variables of Joseph Stalin’s leadership, see Birt, “Personality and Foreign Policy.”
  30. For example, see Peter B. Evans, “Building an Integrative Approach to International and Domestic Politics: Reflections and Projections,” in Evans, Jacobson, and Putnam, Double-Edged Diplomacy, 403–4. See also Margaret G. Hermann, “When Leader Personality Will Affect Foreign Policy: Some Propositions,” in In Search of Global Patterns, ed. James N. Rosenau (New York: The Free Press, 1976); Hermann, “Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior.”
  31. Francis J.  Yammarino  and  Bernard  M.  Bass,  “Person  and  Situation Views of Leadership: A Multiple Levels of Analysis Approach,” Leadership Quarterly 2, no. 2 (1991): 122.
  32. Fred I. Greenstein, “Can Personality and Politics be Studied Systematically?” Political Psychology 13, no. 1 (1992): 108.
  33. Burns, Leadership, 413–15.
  34. See Joseph S. Nye, The Powers to Lead (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008), 64–65.
  35. Tomohito Shinoda, Leading Japan: The Role of the Prime Minister (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2000).
  36. Glenn D. Hook et al., Japan’s International Relations: Politics, Economics and Security (London: Routledge, 2001), 49–50.
  37. Gerald L. Curtis, The Japanese Way of Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1988), 7; Kenneth B. Pyle, Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose (New York: Public Affairs, 2007), 228–29; John Welfield, An Empire in Eclipse: Japan in the Postwar American Alliance System: A Study in the Interaction of Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy (London: Athlone Press, 1988), 91–92.
  38. Bert Edström, Japan’s Evolving Foreign Policy Doctrine: From Yoshida to Miyazawa (London: Macmillan, 1999), 177–79.
  39. See Shinoda,  Koizumi  Diplomacy;  Edström,  Japan’s  Evolving  Foreign Policy Doctrine; Hugo Dobson, Japan and the G7/8: 1975–2002 (London: RoutledgeCurzon, 2004).
  40. Aurelia George Mulgan, “Japan’s Political Leadership Deficit,” Australian Journal of Political Science 35, no. 2 (2000): 183–84.
  41. Kenneth B. Pyle, The Japanese Question: Power and Purpose in a New Era, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: AEI Press, 1996), 68–69. See also Gerald L. Curtis, “Japanese Security Policies and the United States,” Foreign Affairs 59, no. 4 (1981): 853.
  42. Masciulli and Knight, “Conceptions of Global Leadership,” 96.
  43. On leadership vision, see Jean Blondel, Political Leadership: Towards a General Analysis (London: Sage, 1987), 83.
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  45. Jonathan Hopkin, “Comparative Methods,” in Theory and Methods in Political Science, ed. David Marsh and Gerry Stoker, 2nd ed. (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002), 252–53.
  46. On strategic social construction, see Martha Finnemore and Kathryn Sikkink,  “International  Norm  Dynamics  and  Political  Change,”  International Organization 52, no. 4 (1998): 909, 910–11.

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